giugno 2014
45
Africa, a fast-growing
continent
According to the World Bank, emerging
economies will experience growth
in 2014. In African countries, land
fragmentation prevents the exploitation
of commercial opportunities across
borders that might otherwise create jobs,
while trade within the region requires the
removal of existing barriers, which weighs
most heavily on small local businesses.
The Global Economic Prospects (GEP)
report of the World Bank foresees growth
in developing countries from 4.8% in
2013 to 5.3% in 2014, rising slightly
to 5.5% in 2015 and 5.7 % in 2016 - a
lower rate of growth than the 2.2% over
the period 2003-07, but more substantial
than that of the ‘80s and ‘90s. Some
countries are expected to record much
better performance, such as Angola (8%).
According to the report, the economies
of the North African countries remain
depressed due to the political instability
in Egypt and the stalemate inTunisia. An
analysis of North Africa and the Middle
East, which is considered a single region,
indicates a growth projection of 2.8% in
2014, rising to 3.3% in 2015 and 3.6%
in 2016, well below its potential. Unlike
the countries of sub-Saharan Africa,
whose economies grew in 2013 thanks to
intense domestic demand, resulting in a
forecast of real GDP growth of 4.7% in
the region. However, in many countries,
unemployment and poverty remain a
social scourge. With the exception of
South Africa, the average growth for
the rest of the region was 6% . The oil-
exporting countries (Angola, Gabon,
Nigeria) showed a slight recovery in
the first half of 2013, while industrial
production in South Africa has
declined in the third quarter of the year.
Increased domestic demand and lower
inflation should foster growth in the
region of 5.3% in 2014, 5.4% in 2015
and 5.5% in 2016.
